Ikolu ti Ukraine jẹ eyiti ko ṣeeṣe:
Loye Awọn ifiyesi Ilu Rọsia ati aṣiwere ti Diplomacy Western
Dagbasoke ọjọ iwaju ti imọ pẹlu oye ‘ibasepo laarin ohun ti a mọ ati ohun ti yoo ṣẹlẹ, fun idi ti ilọsiwaju mejeeji, fun gbogbo eniyan’.
Igbiyanju yii nbeere ibeere ati ironu ilodi ti o koju ọgbọn aṣa. O nilo ajọdun ti awọn imọran ti o nifẹ si iyatọ ti awọn iwo, di ohun-ọṣọ fun imọ tuntun ati idari ironu.
Ohun ti a ti jẹri ninu ọrọ-ọrọ ti gbogbo eniyan ti o kọ si awọn iṣẹlẹ ni Ukraine ko ṣe augur daradara fun ṣiṣẹda oye ati oye nuanced ti awọn ọran agbaye. Awọn ẹyọkan, ailabawọn ati alaye ti ko ni iwọntunwọnsi ti a ti n gba lati ọdọ awọn alakoso Iwọ-oorun ati awọn ile-iṣẹ iroyin agbaye ti o ni imọran gẹgẹbi CNN, BBC ati Sky News ko ni anfani lati yanju awọn italaya agbaye. Ní òdì kejì ẹ̀wẹ̀, irú ìwà àìnífẹ̀ẹ́ àti ìmọtara-ẹni-nìkan bẹ́ẹ̀ máa ń ru ìforígbárí.
A nilo lati ṣẹda ati gba imọ tuntun ati awọn ilana imotuntun ti o ṣe idiwọ awọn ogun ati ija eniyan ni agbaye.
Ọjọ iwaju ti diplomacy gbọdọ wa ni atunwo ati tun ṣe.
Fun ibere kan, gbogbo ọrọ-ọrọ akọkọ lori Ukraine jẹ itan-akọọlẹ. O ti wa ni decontextualised. Ukraine jẹ apakan ti USSR, superpower ni aarin ti Warsaw Pact – ẹya Ila-oorun ologun Alliance ti iṣeto ni atako si NATO, a Western ologun Alliance. Eyi ni iṣeto ni ti o jẹ iṣiro ologun ti Ogun Tutu.
Laarin 1989 ati 1992, Warsaw Pact ṣubu, ati USSR ti tuka pẹlu awọn orilẹ-ede Soviet di awọn orilẹ-ede olominira gẹgẹbi Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Estonia ati Belarus. Rọ́ṣíà ṣì jẹ́ alágbára ńlá, níwọ̀n bí ó ti jogún ọ̀pọ̀ jù lọ àwọn ológun Soviet àti agbára ilé iṣẹ́, ní pàtàkì ohun ìjà ọ̀gbálẹ̀gbáràwé tó lágbára.
Ni ọdun 1999, awọn ọmọ ẹgbẹ Warsaw Pact tẹlẹ Poland, Hungary ati Czech Republic darapọ mọ NATO, pẹlu atako buburu Russia si gbigbe naa. Imugboroosi NATO miiran wa pẹlu gbigba ti Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, ati Slovenia. Rọ́ṣíà, alágbára ńlá jákèjádò ayé, nímọ̀lára pé àwọn ọ̀tá NATO rẹ̀ tẹ́lẹ̀ yí pa dà. Ni kedere, fun itan-akọọlẹ Ogun Tutu, awọn ifiyesi aabo Russia jẹ oye.
Ipinnu nla ti o buruju ni pataki ti ajọṣepọ Iwọ-oorun ni lati ṣakoso awọn ọkọ oju-omi kekere Okun Dudu, tipa bayii ba Russia jẹ patapata. Putin da ìrìn yẹn duro nipa isọdọkan Crimea. O jẹ itọnisọna lati ṣe akiyesi pe imugboroja ti ko ni imọran ti NATO si awọn agbegbe ti ipa Soviet iṣaaju ni a ṣe ni igbagbọ buburu ati ni irufin itiju ti oye ti o kọlu laarin NATO ati Russian Federation ni opin Ogun Tutu; pe NATO yoo ṣe itẹwọgba ominira ti awọn ipinlẹ Soviet atijọ ati awọn ipinlẹ satẹlaiti ṣugbọn kii ṣe faagun ajọṣepọ ologun sinu awọn agbegbe wọnyi.
In the context of the recent history of the Cold War, Russian demands that Ukraine must remain independent but should not join NATO are not entirely unreasonable. Ukraine has a nearly 2000km border with Russia, and its joining of NATO leads to the total encirclement of Russia by its current and historical opponents.
The posturing by NATO members that Ukraine is free to join since it is a sovereign nation is at best naïve if not an outright manifestation of primitive ignorance.
Sovereignty is not absolute. In October 1962, when the USSR placed nuclear-armed missiles in Cuba, just 90 miles from the United States, the Americans recoiled with anger leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Cuba was a sovereign country with the right to have whatever weapons they wanted on their territory.
Why was this sovereignty not respected?
There was a threat to US national security, and hence that part of Cuban sovereignty was not respected.
This is common sense.
In the end, Nikita Khrushchev backed down, and the Russian missiles were removed from Cuba.
If today France was to exercise its sovereign right, pull out of the EU and NATO, and join a military alliance with Russia or China, will the USA and NATO fold their arms and respect France's sovereignty? Will Western Europe accept a member of a hostile military alliance right at the centre of Europe?
Why not?
What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
It does not make geo-political-strategic and military sense, nor foster global peace and security to have Ukraine as a member of NATO. Such a scenario presents a patently obvious threat to Russian national security.
In fact, by invading Ukraine now, Putin is being preemptive. When Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, Russia will be totally encircled and thus vulnerable. More importantly, any attack on Ukraine then will invoke a swift NATO military response by operation of the NATO agreement. Hence Putin’s demand that Ukraine must never be a member of NATO is reasonable. Both NATO and the people of Ukraine must have accepted this position.
This analysis should be clear to all peace-loving people.
So, what should be done? What could have been done?
While asserting their sovereignty and remaining an independent nation, the people of Ukraine and their leaders must commit to NOT joining NATO. Realpolitik demands this. They will not be the first to follow this pragmatic posture.
Finland jẹ apẹẹrẹ ti ohun ti Ukraine yẹ ki o ṣe. Finland jẹ aibikita pupọ nipa ominira rẹ ati ṣiṣẹ ni pẹkipẹki pẹlu awọn orilẹ-ede Oorun. Bibẹẹkọ, kii ṣe ọmọ ẹgbẹ ti NATO ati ni ilana yago fun eyikeyi ija tabi iwa aiṣedeede pẹlu awọn ara ilu Russia.
Akọ̀wé Orílẹ̀-Èdè Orílẹ̀-Èdè Orílẹ̀-Èdè Amẹ́ríkà tẹ́lẹ̀ rí, Dókítà Henry Kissinger, tó jẹ́ olókìkí tó sì tún bọ̀wọ̀ fún, fọwọ́ sí i pé: ‘Yúkraine gbọ́dọ̀ ní ẹ̀tọ́ láti yan àwọn ẹgbẹ́ ètò ọrọ̀ ajé àti ìṣèlú rẹ̀ lárọ̀ọ́wọ́tó, títí kan Yúróòpù. [Sibẹsibẹ] Ukraine ko yẹ ki o darapọ mọ NATO… Ukraine yẹ ki o ni ominira lati ṣẹda ijọba eyikeyi ti o ni ibamu pẹlu ifẹ ti a fihan ti awọn eniyan rẹ.'
O tun ṣe pataki lati ṣe akiyesi pe Ukraine ko le jẹ orilẹ-ede ominira ajeji miiran si Russia, fun ibatan itan laarin awọn orilẹ-ede mejeeji. O ti jẹ apakan ti Russia fun awọn ọgọrun ọdun, ati pe awọn itan-akọọlẹ wọn ni asopọ lainidi pẹlu awọn apo nla ti awọn eniyan ti n sọ ọrọ Rọsia ni Ukraine ni ọdun 2022.
Otitọ ibi-afẹde yii gbọdọ sọ fun awọn oye ti Iwọ-oorun, awọn alamọdaju ati awọn oludari.
Bayi, kini nipa diplomacy ti Iwọ-Oorun pẹlu ọwọ si aawọ ti n ṣafihan ni Ukraine?
Iduro ti NATO ati awọn oludari Iwọ-oorun ti jẹ pe: 'Ti Russia ba gbógun ti Ukraine, ko si esi ologun lati ọdọ wa. A yoo fa awọn ijẹniniya 'awọ' lodi si Russia.' Kini ipo alaanu ti o buruju! Na nugbo tọn, tulinamẹ kavi oylọ-basinamẹ de wẹ e yin na mẹgbeyinyan de!
Fun ibere kan, kini ipilẹ ti arosinu pe awọn ijẹniniya yoo jẹ arọ? Eto ọrọ-aje Ilu Rọsia jẹ ti o lagbara ati pe o ni ominira pupọ si Iwọ-oorun, pẹlu ipilẹ ti ominira yẹn ni Ogun Tutu, lẹhin eyi Russia jogun eka ile-iṣẹ ologun-pupọ ti o tun jẹ aipe.
Awọn ohun ti a npe ni ijẹniniya ni lati jẹ nipasẹ Amẹrika nikan ati diẹ ninu awọn alajọṣepọ rẹ ti Iwọ-Oorun. Lootọ?
Ko si igbiyanju lati ṣe iparowa fun ilowosi ti iyoku agbaye, gẹgẹbi China (aje ti o tobi julọ ni agbaye), iyoku Asia, iyoku Yuroopu, Latina America ati Afirika. Bawo ni orilẹ-ede kan - Russia - tun le ṣe iṣowo pẹlu gbogbo awọn ọrọ-aje wọnyi (ni otitọ 80% ti agbaye) jẹ arọ nipasẹ awọn ijẹniniya lati nọmba kekere ti awọn orilẹ-ede Oorun?
Èyí jẹ́ ìkùgbù àti ẹ̀tàn ní ìhà ọ̀dọ̀ United àti àwọn alájọṣepọ̀ rẹ̀.
Yoo jẹ apanilẹrin ti kii ba ṣe ipo ogun.
Nitootọ, awọn irokeke NATO measly wọnyi ko ti ronu nipasẹ. Bawo ni eniyan ṣe da adari duro, ati orilẹ-ede rẹ, ti tẹriba lati kọlu orilẹ-ede kan nipa halẹ lati fa awọn ijẹniniya ti ko wulo? Ṣe awọn iwọn yẹn kii ṣe idiyele kekere lati sanwo fun ẹbun nla naa?
Ikuna ti diplomacy ko ṣe iranlọwọ nipasẹ awọn ile-iṣẹ media agbaye eyiti ko ṣe ibeere awọn ikede eto imulo ajeji aṣiwere wọnyi ṣugbọn ṣe bi awọn iyẹwu iwoyi ti ifiweranṣẹ ti ko ni oye nipasẹ awọn oludari Oorun. Ninu itupalẹ wọn ti aawọ ti n ṣafihan, awọn aaye media bọtini ko ṣe awọn amoye tabi awọn alamọwe pẹlu awọn iwoye oriṣiriṣi.
Wọn kan ṣagbekalẹ itan-akọọlẹ ti ko ni ilọsiwaju kanna nibiti ẹnikan ko le ṣe iyatọ oran / oniroyin lati ọdọ alamọdaju koko-ọrọ.
Lapapọ jingoism irrational wa ni awọn ile ise media akok.
Awon man naa ni itara si awọn ipo ti awọn iṣowo-ede wọn.
Itoju, da.
A nilo ifitonileti ati imotuntun diplomacy apẹẹrẹ apẹẹrẹ larinrin, iwa, pataki ati iwe iroyin alamọdaju ati sikolashipu.
Beeni, aawo ni Ukraine le ti yago fun ti oye ti o yatọ si ti awọn aami agbaye wa ni ere ati awọn oludari agbaye ni oye ti o dara asopọ ti itan- Ifẹ ati awọn ifiwe- ifihan.
Awọn iya ati awọn agbara ni ojuse ati awọn ọtá lati jẹki ọrọ ni ayika awọn italaya agbaye ati ki o maṣe di awọn alarinrin ti awọn aiṣedeede.
A ko fẹ ogun. Ó yẹ ká ṣe gbogbo ohun tá a lè ṣe láti yẹra fún ogun.
Laanu, fun ikuna nipasẹ awọn oludari Iwọ-oorun lati loye ati yanju awọn ifiyesi Russia ati aṣiwere anu ti ofo wọn ati awọn irokeke ailagbara, ikọlu ti Ukraine ni ọjọ 24 Kínní 2022 jẹ eyiti ko ṣeeṣe.
A gbọdọ ṣẹda ara tuntun ti imọ ti yoo pinnu ọjọ iwaju ti diplomacy - awọn ipo eto imulo ajeji ti o ṣe idiwọ tabi ṣakoso ija ni imunadoko ati pe ko mu awọn ogun ṣiṣẹ.
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